Monday, November 03, 2008

TOMORROW

So, tomorrow is election day. It is the first presidential election in quite a while during which I will not have to hold my nose when I vote. I just missed the 1988 election, but sheesh, did Dukakis really inspire anyone? 1992 and 1996 were fun, but Gore/Lieberman were very, very hard to like. I mean, listening to the two of them speak back-to-back was like a scene from Solzhenitsyn. And John Kerry! John Kerry! Ugh.

Meanwhile, I was thinking the other day that Bob Dole and John McCain ended up having sort of similar presidential campaigns. Both were decorated veterans, and both were . . . elder statesmen. Each seemed to exude a sense of it being "his turn" at different times in their campaigns. Each ran against a dynamic, "new" Democrat. Each also had a very angry, nasty streak that came out at inopportune moments. For instance, McCain here probably should not have used air quotes with the term "health." It came off as very nasty and really discounting legitimate health issues. Surprisingly, I can't find a good youtube clip of Dole doing his trademark "where's the outrage" line about Clinton. That also came off as out of touch, and self-serving.

Of course, Clinton won 379 electoral votes in 1996, and Obama has not actually won ANYTHING as of this writing, so that could be a big difference between Dole and McCain. I actually don't think it will be though. When an old school Republican friend from Iowa told me that he had an Obama sign in his front yard (in Virginia), I realized that McCain/Palin were in deep, deep trouble. Maybe all of the polls are wrong, but when they lose the internationalist, business-first, Catholic convert from Iowa, they are in trouble.

So, to close, my prediction is that Obama will win 341 votes in the Electoral College. I predict he will lose Florida, Missouri, and Indiana, but win Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Colorado (among others). Shocker? He will win Georgia. Black turnout has apparently already been tremendous, and Obama's get out the vote effort is going to surprise and overwhelm the Georgia Republicans. If Georgia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina all go for Obama it is almost impossible for McCain to win. We should know three of those well before bedtime here in the Midwest.

By the way, to be elected President it takes 270 votes in the Electoral College.

2 Comments:

Anonymous Rach said...

Hey Dave- As a new Georgian I will tell you that I am surrounded by hard core Republicans. I've heard neighbors make comments like, "you remember those democrats that used to live in that house." Meg's school voted yesterday and the results were roughly 500 for McCain and 300 for Obama. I think grade school results should be posted on MSNBC because it's a good indicator of how a county will vote. When asked who she voted for, Meg responded, "I voted for McCain because he has a woman." I loved that because he sounds so bad but I understood the Palin reference. She's only 9 so I have plenty of time to straighten her out. Meg also mentioned that her friends said that Obama was going to take more of their parents money. Without looking up from his DS, Gus chimed in and sais, "Everyone at my school voted for Obama. You should really go vote Mom because it's a treat. A lot of people can't vote." I was shocked to hear his comments. He's 5!!! I asked who can't vote and Gus said, "well of course kids, but also people in other countries." So we have Meg attending a very Republican school where there is obvious money and Gus is attending an earthy granola, liberal Montessori school. We need that balance. Mabel hasn't shared her thoughts. Pete and I worked our tails off to get registered by the deadline and we're so happy that we voted!

5:39 PM  
Blogger David said...

Rach,
Looks like you were right, although I did hear today that Georgia reported votes are much lower than expected. Oh well.

I still sort of look for the early vote to be "discovered" and for Georgia to be closer than it looked, but Obama could not quite pull Georgia.

11:53 AM  

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